Abstract:

Expert predictions on the magnitude of growth in food demand through the 21st Century differ considerably, but all agree that we will need to produce markedly more food due to population growth and rising incomes, especially in high-population countries. Our ability to do it, however, is in question due to possible declines in the rate of agricultural productivity growth, adverse impacts of climate change, and pest and biological resistance to traditional treatments. Despite this immense and existential challenge, governments worldwide are pursuing agricultural, climate, and energy policies that unequivocally reduce crop yields and supply-chain efficiency. This lecture assesses the food-supply challenges that society faces in the 21st Century and the impediments we have imposed upon ourselves to meeting those challenges.