Seminar Announcement: Majid Shafiee-Jood
Effective Use of Drought Forecasts Requires More Than Just Improving Forecast Accuracy
11:00 am –
12:00 pm
Scott Engineering Center
Room: 111 / PKI 160
844 N 16th St
Lincoln NE 68508
Lincoln NE 68508
Additional Info: SEC
ABSTRACT
Reinforced by the 2012 Great Plains drought and the recent California’s multi-year drought, proactive drought management, which was originally promoted by Donald Wilhite, has once again come to the forefront of scientific and public policy agenda. One of the key components of proactive drought management is the use of climate forecast products as early warning information. However, the value of using drought forecasts in agriculture has yet to be exploited in practice. While this, in part, has been associated with the characteristics of forecast information (most importantly, accuracy or skill), findings from applied social science and applied meteorology studies have shed new lights on other possible determinants of forecast uptake. Building upon those findings, in this talk, I discuss how different factors could influence the user-perceived value of drought forecast. More specifically, first, I use the 2012 drought in Central Illinois as a case study to highlight the role of crop insurance and forward contracts in farmers’ valuation of forecasts. Following that, I utilize a theoretical model to demonstrate the role of farmers’ behavioral factors, such as their risk attitude, perception of forecast accuracy and the neighborhood effect in ultimate adoption of forecast information. I also highlight the dynamic nature of drought forecast adoption, which is often ignored in climate risk management strategies. Finally, I will discuss insights and hypotheses rising from the theoretical analysis, which could direct empirical studies, laboratory experiments, and eventually policy interventions.
BIOGRAPHY
Majid Shafiee-Jood is a doctoral candidate in Water Resources Engineering and Science program in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. He obtained his bachelor’s degree in Civil Engineering and his master’s degree in Water Resources Engineering both from Sharif University of Technology in Iran. Majid’s research interests lie at the intersection of water resources management, climate risk management and water-food-energy nexus. His research has been published in various high-profile journals and featured in AGU’s EOS magazine and among F1000Prime recommended articles. He also has been recognized for teaching excellence at the University of Illinois both as an instructor and as a teaching assistant. He serves as a reviewer for several journals and he is an active member of the “Hydroclimatic Prediction in Water Systems Operations” task committee at EWRI congress.
Reinforced by the 2012 Great Plains drought and the recent California’s multi-year drought, proactive drought management, which was originally promoted by Donald Wilhite, has once again come to the forefront of scientific and public policy agenda. One of the key components of proactive drought management is the use of climate forecast products as early warning information. However, the value of using drought forecasts in agriculture has yet to be exploited in practice. While this, in part, has been associated with the characteristics of forecast information (most importantly, accuracy or skill), findings from applied social science and applied meteorology studies have shed new lights on other possible determinants of forecast uptake. Building upon those findings, in this talk, I discuss how different factors could influence the user-perceived value of drought forecast. More specifically, first, I use the 2012 drought in Central Illinois as a case study to highlight the role of crop insurance and forward contracts in farmers’ valuation of forecasts. Following that, I utilize a theoretical model to demonstrate the role of farmers’ behavioral factors, such as their risk attitude, perception of forecast accuracy and the neighborhood effect in ultimate adoption of forecast information. I also highlight the dynamic nature of drought forecast adoption, which is often ignored in climate risk management strategies. Finally, I will discuss insights and hypotheses rising from the theoretical analysis, which could direct empirical studies, laboratory experiments, and eventually policy interventions.
BIOGRAPHY
Majid Shafiee-Jood is a doctoral candidate in Water Resources Engineering and Science program in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. He obtained his bachelor’s degree in Civil Engineering and his master’s degree in Water Resources Engineering both from Sharif University of Technology in Iran. Majid’s research interests lie at the intersection of water resources management, climate risk management and water-food-energy nexus. His research has been published in various high-profile journals and featured in AGU’s EOS magazine and among F1000Prime recommended articles. He also has been recognized for teaching excellence at the University of Illinois both as an instructor and as a teaching assistant. He serves as a reviewer for several journals and he is an active member of the “Hydroclimatic Prediction in Water Systems Operations” task committee at EWRI congress.